I'm afraid that the list of probable outcomes for Syria, the Euro, world peace and the solution to the Global Financial Crisis have had a bit of a set-back in recent days - back to the drawing board, eh!
Let's just kick a happy ending to the GFC into touch with the announcement of unlimited Quantitive Easing from the Fed. Seems that they have finally accepted that no finite amount of money is going to solve this one and they're going to print, and keep printing, sufficient money to buy back all the toxic financial waste out there until there is no believable money left and the world's economy explodes in a shower of million dollar bills. They're betting on the off-chance that there is a completely inexplicable global economic recovery in time before all money turns to wallpaper or that, with luck, a total collapse stops-short when inflation reduces the real cost to a couple of weeks of your child's pocket-money delivered in a wheelbarrow. All of this will, of course, be in an attempt to save the banks from themselves - and from collectively destroying Liberal Capitalist Democracy.
Another blow to Liberal Capitalist Democrats is their inability to immediately seduce everybody on their first date. An inability recently confirmed by the people of Libya, Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen. That democratic capitalism isn't the Casanova of politico/economic systems they imagine comes as a bit of a shock to those that announced an end to history some decades ago. Rather than call the rejecters ungrateful, treacherous, sods we might take a look at why they might not want to get into bed with the likes of Goldman Sachs and the Royal Bank of Scotland. The tenets of Islam reject the fundamentals of capitalism. One has Faith the other economics. The will of the Creator versus the will of man. And that's before you get to foreign policy.
Which brings us to Iran, Israel and Syria. Iranian Revolutionary Guards are assisting Assad in his fight against the very sort of "freedom-fighters" that just blew away an American Ambassador and attacked disparate US Embassies - fired mortars into a coalition of the willing base in Afghanistan and have racked up a growing number of kills recently. Not on a par with the number of women and children collaterally killed by CIA drone strikes but substantial enough to ask "what the fuck are we doing"? Meanwhile Bibi is threatening to launch the, peace-loving, Israeli Defence Force against the Iranians to stop Iran having as many nuclear weapons as they have - what ever happened to Mutually Assured Destruction as a keeper of the peace? Just to make sure the Israelis don't do anything stupid, like lose, the US has moved a fleet into the Mediterranean accompanied by a couple of tugs from the Royal Navy.
All of this is predictable but apparently incomprehensible to the Americans who are baffled and yet again asking "why do they hate us"? It's not Americans they hate it's their government's policies. Which takes it way beyond an anti-Islamic film clip. The Arab world has found a voice after generations of a repression supported by the USA, among others, for pragmatic political and economic gain. The travesty of Americans complaining about how ungrateful the Egyptians are, when they have received $billions in US aid, need to remember that most, if not all, went to a dictator that ran a police state and not to the fellahin. If Americans learned to shut-up and not claim to have brought Freedom to all and sundry and were to stop claiming they're Exceptional they might lose a few less Ambassadors. This is a message that the US News media needs to get it's head around. As was said when the USA was last embroiled in a war they lost "the whole world is watching".
If you compare the manner of death of Ambassador Stephens in Libya with that of Ambassador Davies in Cyprus there's little to choose between them. A group of armed attackers among a few hundred or so protestors that clustered at the US Embassy opened fire on it and killed some of the occupants. There was never any contemporary suggestion that Davies' death was the result of a pre-planned attack - things were different then - although many of the armed attackers shooting at the Embassy were in Greek-Cypriot National Guard uniforms and had arrived carrying weapons - one had a stick of dynamite. The Cyprus attack was put down to EOKA-B terrorists - which suited everybody as the Embassy was attacked by Greek-Cypriot Guardsmen that believed the US had stopped the Greek Military Junta, then in power in Greece and supported by the USA, from providing military aid to combat the Turkish invasion of the island. The US didn't want two allies fighting each other and imposed it's will. In Libya, that there are a bunch of armed men at every road junction in Benghazi would have provided the requisite fire-power to attack the Embassy. That it was done by the very fighters that benefitted from NATO intervention in the revolution is problematic and needs an acceptable explanation.
You can't have the same freedom-fighters that you just provided with the blessings of freedom turn their guns on you as the spontaneous result of it - you have to protect your core belief of a grateful populace and invent a conspiracy involving a sworn enemy. Both deaths are the result of US foreign policy camouflaged to look like the work of rogue terrorists rather than a widespread, popular, and violent rejection of those policies. I believe this is called self-delusion.
I have always thought that the habit of US worthies to travel in not-so-discreetly armoured, heavily tinted windowed, American made vehicles in the company of two or three men the size of American Football Line-backers, dressed as heavily armed anglers, with overly sensitive eyes, was a bit of a giveaway. The concept that this group can arrived un-noticed at a "safe-house" in downtown anywhere is bordering on the hysterical. Especially after the reputation such vehicles gained in Iraq - not without some justification.
Showing posts with label Syria. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Syria. Show all posts
Monday, 17 September 2012
Tuesday, 15 November 2011
The Bankers' last Haka
We appear to be well into the Uncertainty Principle already - if the Market reaction is anything to go by. Germany and France are at opposite ends of this principle. Germany has stopped so it knows where it is and France has to keep moving to avoid finding out. Unfortunately the two of them have to come up with a compatible solution. Germany knows it has just about enough money to deal only with it's own problems but France hasn't. So France wants to keep the fiction going long enough for time to heal the wound while Germany - no stranger to overwhelming debt - sees no point in securing what amounts to France's, and the rest of Europe's, debt as part of any deal. Meanwhile the British are baffled - at the mercy of the banks that created the problem in the first place. The City of London runs the country via political proxy.
Seeing that most of the transactions take place Offshore beyond regulation any threat to withdraw from the City of London is pretty hollow. All the foreign banks are already outside most UK regulation and taxation which is why they came to London to begin with. The UK banks are only subject to UK authority on the money they earn domestically or repatriate - largely used to pay themselves. Regulating this is a bit of a problem as the whole convoluted system is designed to avoid oversight. It is also designed to avoid jail. Any solution, to the inequity of bankers' moral hazard being taken at the expense of taxpayers, would have to remove the Offshore ability of accumulating unregulated debt globally while the risk falls domestically upon those with clean hands. This would require the regulations to apply universally, bring offshore havens into the fold and remove any burden on the public purse to bail out banks and private financial institutions. This will mean reversing most of what has happened over the past 40 years. Not a bit of wonder that bankers won't tolerate the thought of it. To make the present financial behaviour illegal would see most of them end up in prison.
What is a decent salary for a banker? They already get a base salary that is well above the norm and, under the present circumstances, more than they deserve. The bonus culture is their way of winning the bet before the result is in. The bonus culture in corporations is not that much better than in banking. This time the fools that carry the risk are the shareholders. Guaranteed minimum 100% of salary bonuses, stock options, retirement plan contributions are all based on numbers manipulated by the recipients of this largesse. The growing importance and influence of CFOs reflect this apparent anomaly as they orchestrate the numbers. The movement of vast quantities of money into private retirement plans, under favourable government tax rules drafted on the advice of financial institutions, guaranteed rising stock price P/E ratios that allowed corporate management to falsify omniscience and overpay themselves. All very comfy until there is a market crash. At which time the shareholders take the hit and management continues to pay itself more than they are worth or are the recipients of, wholly undeserved, giant redundancy packages.
Economies run on infrastructure and spending - any money not designated to improve those should be dropped from the plan. The beneficiaries of this infrastructure should be properly and proportionately taxed for it. This would include equitably apportioning corporate and finance profits towards national prosperity rather than individual wealth. By this means the possibility of a popular revolution on the street may be avoided.
You're wrong about Libya being the first no troops (or very few) on the ground example of regime change by us. Afghanistan was rid of the Taliban with similar minimal help - unfortunately keeping it Taliban-free has resulted in many more boots on the ground than originally estimated and an open-ended obligation. We'll have to conjure up the war on terror though to justify our arrival in Libya in large, heavily armed, numbers. Not beyond the realm of possibility once the Libyan factions start a civil war. Syria will become our new best friend when US troops leave Iraq and Iran gains more influence there. Hence the lack of action against Assad Jr. - unless of course he looks like actually losing at which point we'll back the most friendly looking, non-islamic, alternative. There is an interesting Middle East dynamic developing where their democracy is a challenge to our democracy. Let's not forget all our oil bearing despotic arab allies fearfully eyeing the rise of democracy. We're in a bit of a conundrum.
By the time NZ won the Rugby World Cup I was prepared to support anyone else, including France, winning the bloody thing just to get it over with. You've got to start thinking that it is all a set-up with the winner pre-arranged on an as-needed basis (a bit like Formula One motor racing). I'll be truly relieved when the last flag, poster and sign of the World Cup is removed from every nook and cranny of this country. A country that, sadly, believes that rugby is the world's most important game and, even more sadly, is the only game their boys can play reasonably well. The Haka thing at the start of the game should be banned - a time-waster and unfair to those without their own Haka to perform. Although every nation that has more than 8 vowels in the players' names has one. When Tonga or Samoa play NZ they try to out-Haka each other. The French walk-up is only news-worthy because NZ (and the IRB) expects the other team to stand around doing nothing while on the receiving end of loud noises, rude signs and throat-slitting actions. My suggestion is that all teams have a pre-game dance routine. Highland dancing for the Scots, a Jig for the Irish, coal-mining movements for the Welsh and a Morris dance for the English. The possibilities are endless, Line-dancing for the Americans, Tango for the Argies, some sort of Ninja deal for the Japanese, Can-Can for the French - what the fuck the Canadians and Suth Ifricins do is up to them.
Seeing that most of the transactions take place Offshore beyond regulation any threat to withdraw from the City of London is pretty hollow. All the foreign banks are already outside most UK regulation and taxation which is why they came to London to begin with. The UK banks are only subject to UK authority on the money they earn domestically or repatriate - largely used to pay themselves. Regulating this is a bit of a problem as the whole convoluted system is designed to avoid oversight. It is also designed to avoid jail. Any solution, to the inequity of bankers' moral hazard being taken at the expense of taxpayers, would have to remove the Offshore ability of accumulating unregulated debt globally while the risk falls domestically upon those with clean hands. This would require the regulations to apply universally, bring offshore havens into the fold and remove any burden on the public purse to bail out banks and private financial institutions. This will mean reversing most of what has happened over the past 40 years. Not a bit of wonder that bankers won't tolerate the thought of it. To make the present financial behaviour illegal would see most of them end up in prison.
What is a decent salary for a banker? They already get a base salary that is well above the norm and, under the present circumstances, more than they deserve. The bonus culture is their way of winning the bet before the result is in. The bonus culture in corporations is not that much better than in banking. This time the fools that carry the risk are the shareholders. Guaranteed minimum 100% of salary bonuses, stock options, retirement plan contributions are all based on numbers manipulated by the recipients of this largesse. The growing importance and influence of CFOs reflect this apparent anomaly as they orchestrate the numbers. The movement of vast quantities of money into private retirement plans, under favourable government tax rules drafted on the advice of financial institutions, guaranteed rising stock price P/E ratios that allowed corporate management to falsify omniscience and overpay themselves. All very comfy until there is a market crash. At which time the shareholders take the hit and management continues to pay itself more than they are worth or are the recipients of, wholly undeserved, giant redundancy packages.
Economies run on infrastructure and spending - any money not designated to improve those should be dropped from the plan. The beneficiaries of this infrastructure should be properly and proportionately taxed for it. This would include equitably apportioning corporate and finance profits towards national prosperity rather than individual wealth. By this means the possibility of a popular revolution on the street may be avoided.
You're wrong about Libya being the first no troops (or very few) on the ground example of regime change by us. Afghanistan was rid of the Taliban with similar minimal help - unfortunately keeping it Taliban-free has resulted in many more boots on the ground than originally estimated and an open-ended obligation. We'll have to conjure up the war on terror though to justify our arrival in Libya in large, heavily armed, numbers. Not beyond the realm of possibility once the Libyan factions start a civil war. Syria will become our new best friend when US troops leave Iraq and Iran gains more influence there. Hence the lack of action against Assad Jr. - unless of course he looks like actually losing at which point we'll back the most friendly looking, non-islamic, alternative. There is an interesting Middle East dynamic developing where their democracy is a challenge to our democracy. Let's not forget all our oil bearing despotic arab allies fearfully eyeing the rise of democracy. We're in a bit of a conundrum.
By the time NZ won the Rugby World Cup I was prepared to support anyone else, including France, winning the bloody thing just to get it over with. You've got to start thinking that it is all a set-up with the winner pre-arranged on an as-needed basis (a bit like Formula One motor racing). I'll be truly relieved when the last flag, poster and sign of the World Cup is removed from every nook and cranny of this country. A country that, sadly, believes that rugby is the world's most important game and, even more sadly, is the only game their boys can play reasonably well. The Haka thing at the start of the game should be banned - a time-waster and unfair to those without their own Haka to perform. Although every nation that has more than 8 vowels in the players' names has one. When Tonga or Samoa play NZ they try to out-Haka each other. The French walk-up is only news-worthy because NZ (and the IRB) expects the other team to stand around doing nothing while on the receiving end of loud noises, rude signs and throat-slitting actions. My suggestion is that all teams have a pre-game dance routine. Highland dancing for the Scots, a Jig for the Irish, coal-mining movements for the Welsh and a Morris dance for the English. The possibilities are endless, Line-dancing for the Americans, Tango for the Argies, some sort of Ninja deal for the Japanese, Can-Can for the French - what the fuck the Canadians and Suth Ifricins do is up to them.
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