No Flies

Brian,

Way back when I told you that no matter how bad you think the economy is it is actually worse. At the time of the original financial collapse nobody knew where, or how much, the money was or who owed what to whom. As these hundreds of trillions worth of financial instruments work their way to maturity over the upcoming months and years the losses will have to be taken - that's what we're seeing. The bailouts enabled these instruments to be carried on the banks' books at close to face value in the hope of a swift economic recovery - faint hope. If any government insisted on banks 'fessing up to their losses like the Irish Govt is doing they'd all be in the same situation - skint - including your bank. The next Irish Famine will be a financial one. This is why the early enthusiasm for restructuring the financial system went nowhere - the realisation that by seriously taking the rotten one apart we'd all be ruined instantaneously. Recent events in Japan have sucked billions in liquidity out of the markets, a similar event in, say, California would put an end to them permanently. The term "confidence in the market" is not bandied about without reason as without it the trick wouldn't work.

Again, I've told you not to listen to politicians - you can never be too cynical. Hordes of Libyans heading toward Afghanistan? They've got no real idea who is, or how many are, fighting in Afghanistan as their only, somewhat insecure, area of control extends but a few yards outside Kabul - and that is so corrupt that any information coming out of it is suspect. Funny that we haven't heard about this until now - when it might support our position in selecting a regime change in Libya. That is not to say we'd do the same in Saudi Arabia even though they're largely paying for the Taleban. In all likelihood we're talking a few dozen, at most, maybe less, Libyans in Afghanistan from a population of six and a half million. About the same proportion as the IRA was in Libya or Lebanon. As there are no flights in or out of Benghazi or anywhere else in Libya how they are able to trail these guys at the present time would be a good question to ask.

The borders of Afghanistan weren't drawn by the Afghans themselves but by those trying to get away from them. I was unable to convince my employer at the time that the Soviet Union's invasion was the action of the good guys. Had we accepted that then the oil pipelines from the former Soviet "Stans" to the coast would already be in place and working nicely - rather than the impossibility they now are despite our best attempts to secure a path for them.

The no-fly zone and attacks on Kaddafi's troops are more about protecting oil installations from damage than assisting democracy. Democracy in this case being the ascendancy of one tribe over another one. One doesn't want a firefight in the middle of an oil terminal. If you're wondering where our special forces are .... so far the oil fields themselves appear to be untouched.  This military action has led to the inevitable requirement that Kaddafi now goes lest he punish the oil companies from participating countries by nationalising them in revenge - and also that what replaces him doesn't do the same thing. Remember that even at the height of Kaddafi's lunacy these oils companies were operating in Libya so they're none too concerned as to the legitimacy of the next government - so long as they're allowed to continue doing business as usual. Even a brief glance at the list of potential candidates from the former regime hoping to replace Kaddafi would exclude the possibility of democracy prevailing - especially if we can enlist the war on terror.